by Auto Remarketing:
Black
Book Lender Solutions wanted to give the industry analysis and
information so dealerships and finance companies can handle the latest
origination challenge.
A potential buyer has a family budget cap for a monthly payment of
roughly $400, but those stipulations demand that the vehicle installment
contract term stretch to 84 months to get the unit delivered.
On Friday, Black Book made its latest white paper available that's appropriately titled,
Collateral Insight Critical to 84-Month Auto Loans. Barrett Teague, Black Book's vice president of lender solutions, told
SubPrime Auto Finance News that 10 years ago, a term of "84 months was really not a topic of conversation."
What Teague described as "specialty shops" handled the longest term
loans that usually peaked at 75 months and were reserved for "pristine"
customers.
Now with terms stretching to 84 months moving from talk at industry
conference networking sessions to contracts connected to metal on the
street, Teague insisted Black Book "addressed something we don't feel is
being addressed very often in the marketplace today when it comes to
those longer-term vehicles."
Of course, it doesn't take a seasoned finance company executive to
realize the risk increases the longer the term is. Black Book outlined
in the white paper four considerations when determining risk levels,
including
? LTV ratio
? Rate of vehicle depreciation
? Credit profile
? Risk adjusted return on capital
"This kind of analysis will help the lender review the loan deals
from a whole-lifetime-analysis perspective so they can optimize their
risk and return for that portfolio while at the same time meeting their
customer needs," said Anil Goyal, Black Book's vice president of
automotive valuation and analytics.
Goyal and his team gathered the data and found not only a variety of
vehicle depreciation trends from Black Book's own resources, but also
referenced material from government outlets as well as Experian
Automotive.
As elaborate as all of the data points can possibly be, Black Book
boiled down one crucial component that might be one of the most
important triggers of the rise of 84-month contracts. According to the
U.S. Census Bureau, from 2007 through 2012, household incomes rose just
1.6 percent from an average of $48,729 to $49,486.
However, during that same time, the average price of a 2- to
6-year-old vehicle rose 24.9 percent from an average of $11,160 to
$13,949, according to Black Book vehicle valuation data.
"It becomes very apparent there's not a lot more household income to
spend on vehicles, yet the consumer is spending more each month on that.
That's really the driving the consumer need on the longer-term loans,"
Teague said.
In light of consumer demand, Goyal explained that captives, banks,
credit unions and even buy-here, pay-here dealerships with related
finance companies might ask themselves as series of questions when
deciding how far they want to stretch terms to meet consumer demand.
"How much longer are you going to keep that vehicle in a negative
equity situation, which is going to increase that severity of risk?" he
said. "What is the value today? How much loan do you want to lend? When
is that loan going to turn around into a more positive situation? How is
that collateral going to perform? What are the depreciation trends?
"Analysis of collateral values becomes very important," Goyal continued in Friday's conversation with
SubPrime Auto Finance News.
Teague pointed out that some finance companies are looking to
leverage the possibilities of longer terms to increase potential
profitability. Because interest rates are low for consumers with strong
credit background, Teague noted shorter terms aren't allowing for an
extended window for the portfolio to blossom.
"Instead of just increasing the risk based on credit score alone,
that there is an opportunity based on the term that's out there," Teague
said.
But as Black Book also mentions in the white paper, longer terms
create a potential sour consumer situation down the road depending on
how long the buyers wants to keep that vehicle.
"There is always a place for longer-term loans. There is a customer
out there who would really benefit," Goyal said. "If that customer is
intending to keep that vehicle for seven to eight years and not looking
to come back to the dealership in three to four years, this is an ideal
loan for them. But if that customer is looking to come back in three
years, they're going to find that they don't have much value for that
trade-in, and it's going to be a difficult conversation when they come
back.
"I think it's important for the industry to recognize that there is a
place but it depends on how you target them ? making sure you're
addressing the right segment for that customer and getting them into the
right vehicle that makes sense for this longer-term loan.