New data from Equifax Canada's
Q2 National Consumer Credit Trends Report showed that demand for new credit is strongest in the auto sector, and is growing everywhere except Quebec.
The report also found that Canadians are still adding on debt, but at a slower rate seen in past quarters.
According to the report, total consumer debt is now at $1.568
trillion, driven primarily by the installment loan and auto loan
sectors. In fact, debt in the auto loan sector increased by 3.9 percent
year-over-year in Q2.
The average consumer debt is $21,164, which increased by 2.0 percent
versus 2.7 percent in the previous quarter, the report stated.
"The overall trend we've seen with debt levels going up and
delinquency rates coming down is still the case, but some of the
sub-segments within the Canadian population are changing their
behavior," explained Regina Malina, senior director of decision insights
at Equifax Canada. "We're starting to see the impact of low oil prices
in the West as these prices are forcing a new reality on Alberta and
Saskatchewan in particular. In these two provinces the debt levels are
stable, but the delinquency rate has started to increase."
As oil prices continue to slide, Equifax Canada reported Canada is
slipping into a "mild recession," though the company also reported
appetite for new credit is still on the rise, with the strongest
activity observed in the auto, bank and national credit card sectors.
As far as delinquencies go, in mid-2015, it decreased to 1.09 percent
after rising in Q1. And Equifax Canada reported auto loan delinquency
rates continued to increase when compared to the previous quarter.
When compared to the same quarter last year, the national 90+ day
delinquency rate decreased, as well, driving by improving rates in
Ontario.
On the other hand, delinquency rates in Quebec and the Eastern region are on the rise.
And in the Western provinces, after delinquency declined over the past several year, the areas saw rates rise this past quarter.
This movement was driven, of course, by significant delinquency
increases within the oil-heavy regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
A recent study from TransUnion
asserted consumers and lenders should expect "sharp increases" in
credit and loan product delinquencies in the near future, especially in
the oil-heavy regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
"Based on an historical analysis of the last oil crash and recent
payment behavior trends, we expect materially higher delinquency rates
in Alberta and Saskatchewan in the second half of 2015," said Jason
Wang, co-author of the study and TransUnion's director of research and
industry analysis in Canada.
Taking a look at demographics, the delinquency rate for Canadians
over 65 rose for the first time since 2010 by a rate of 2.4 percent in
Q2, according to the Equifax Canada report.
"Delinquency rates for all other age groups are decreasing by
different degrees, but for the first time in several years, we've seen
this change in behavior from seniors," said Malina. "In the light of the
fact that debt carried by seniors has been increasing faster than for
other age groups for a while, we will monitor this trend closely in the
coming quarters."
As for bankruptcies go, rates have consistently declined since 2009.
Equifax Canada reported Ontario continues to lead the pack in terms of the decline in bankruptcies.
The number of bankruptcies has decreased since 2009.
Ontario continues to lead in terms of the rate of decrease of bankruptcies.
That said, the report stated that average bankruptcy balances
increased in Q2 year-over-year, driven primarily by the younger
segments, as well as in the Western and Eastern regions.
By Sarah RubenoffAuto Remarketing Canada Editor