German automakers Volkswagen Group and
Daimler on Monday announced ambitious new plans to make long-range
electric vehicles in a rapidly intensifying competition with Tesla,
General Motors, Nissan and other global auto companies.
Their timing could be just right after years of tepid industry sales for electric cars.
China,
hoping to clear up devastating urban smog, this weekend signaled plans
to eventually ban gasoline engines, delivering a sharp jolt
for battery-powered vehicles despite limited interest so far among
consumers worldwide.
The moves also come amid
rapidly falling battery prices, which analysts say will quickly make
electric cars as affordable as gas vehicles.
Volkswagen,
the world's largest car company, said at the Frankfurt auto show in
Germany that it expects to sell up to 3 million battery-powered cars by
2025, representing about a quarter of its vehicles.
The
company also Monday showed off a newly designed electric sport-utility
vehicle called the I.D. Crozz that will arrive in 2020, along with a
compact hatchback electric car called the I.D.
With
a battery range of about 310 to 370 miles (based on European regulatory
standards, which are higher than U.S. range), the I.D. vehicles will be
among the longest-range affordable electric vehicles.
And Daimler luxury brand Mercedes-Benz said it would make an electric model of all of its vehicles by 2022.
It's an "anything Tesla can do, we can do better"
strategy, Sanford Bernstein analyst Max Warburton said in a note to
investors. "Mercedes is convinced it can match Tesla battery costs, beat
its manufacturing and procurement costs, ramp up production faster and
have better quality. It is also confident its cars will drive better."
Those
product plans follow several recently introduced, long-range
mass-market electric cars, including GM's Chevrolet Bolt, Tesla's Model 3
and the forthcoming redesigned version of the Nissan Leaf.
The
base models of those vehicles have travel ranges of 238, 220 and 150
miles, respectively, and starting prices of $37,500, $35,000 and $30,000
before tax incentives.
Despite
low gasoline prices and U.S. market share of only 0.5% so far this year
for electric cars, investments in the segment are accelerating for
regulatory and technological reasons. Sanford Bernstein analyst Mark
Newman projected that falling battery costs would make electric cars the
same price as gas vehicles by 2021, which is "far earlier than most
expect."
And although the Trump administration is considering lowering fuel
economy standards, automakers are pressing ahead with electric car plans
because regulators in other markets are pushing to reduce emissions.
Chief among them is China, the world's largest car
market. Xin Guobin, China's vice minister of industry and information
technology, announced the ban on manufacturing and sale of gas vehicles
but provided no details on timing, according to state news source Xinhua. It follows similar moves by the Britain and France, which are aiming for 2040.
"The measures would surely bring profound changes to the sector's development," Xin said.
With
China stepping on the accelerator, global automakers have no choice but
to invest in electric cars, despite the corresponding drag on profits.
"If
there’s any country in the world that could pull off a switch, it would
be China, only because of the government control that they have,"
AutoPacific analyst Dave Sullivan said. "There’s less free market forces
in play."
For Volkswagen, China's move is ideal
timing. The automaker is planning 80 electric vehicles by 2025 as it
continues its campaign to shed the negative image associated with its
diesel emissions scandal.
The I.D. Crozz SUV will be one of the first models,
boasting range of up to 310 miles, while the I.D. would have range of up
to 370 miles.
"The electric car will quickly gain
extreme momentum at the start of the new decade," VW brand CEO Herbert
Diess said in a statement.
Diess said sales of
VW-brand electric vehicles could total 1 million by 2025, up from a
negligible amount today and a projected 100,000 in 2020. VW's other
brands include Audi and Porsche.
Mercedes'
ambitions are slightly less aggressive. The Daimler brand hopes to sell
500,000 electric vehicles by 2025, Warburton said.
Although
the regulatory reasons for investments in electric cars are
self-evident, the moves will still compromise profits in the short-term.
Daimler warned that its margins could fall from 10% to 8%.
"And that sounds like a best-case scenario," Warburton said
No comments:
Post a Comment